Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 32.739908 35.301531 38.079903 41.337704 45.079771 49.276730 54.387677
2025-04-27 29.505419 33.042129 37.134897 42.298566 48.756508 56.736855 67.637277
2025-05-04 27.372706 31.420087 36.310599 42.804692 51.452145 62.983103 80.345474
2025-05-11 25.467987 29.750771 35.089538 42.454595 52.750803 67.359002 91.302980
2025-05-18 23.855775 28.247485 33.857084 41.836226 53.449261 70.830945 101.617752
2025-05-25 22.447905 26.868609 32.626930 41.025809 53.671294 73.501935 111.221391
2025-06-01 21.263745 25.685207 31.541821 40.272687 53.820657 75.996018 121.176958
2025-06-08 20.124016 24.482055 30.330855 39.202576 53.309324 77.236154 128.989690
2025-06-15 19.803051 24.358131 30.597570 40.325295 56.416787 85.385224 155.050769
2025-06-22 19.135122 23.710883 30.065799 40.162274 57.334610 89.620549 173.942889
2025-06-29 18.385614 22.908164 29.254708 39.483640 57.259583 91.853691 188.671962
2025-07-06 17.578457 21.986400 28.216976 38.360735 56.260483 91.979224 197.319051
2025-07-13 17.381521 21.942638 28.504322 39.456344 59.540638 102.309108 248.183745
2025-07-20 17.133293 21.811989 28.652109 40.336159 62.564430 113.068113 315.502034
2025-07-27 16.805412 21.544970 28.568271 40.803926 64.838830 122.762628 396.437696
2025-08-03 16.324261 21.027256 28.060490 40.480228 65.428904 128.175549 466.489830
2025-08-10 15.823155 20.458607 27.441754 39.908171 65.412993 131.897864 536.545909
2025-08-17 15.317023 19.863322 26.752116 39.157822 64.917075 134.085989 603.422054
2025-08-24 14.852687 19.315203 26.114208 38.459878 64.460525 136.329415 683.351304
2025-08-31 14.354394 18.699629 25.342518 37.467092 63.230782 135.775226 733.086326
2025-09-07 14.289426 18.743673 25.646181 38.508651 66.853748 153.152044 1202.490517
2025-09-14 13.997778 18.426478 25.337806 38.357501 67.612673 160.643434 1649.397441
2025-09-21 13.632209 17.982921 24.800839 37.727970 67.117140 163.114811 2039.545831